Both social and economic trends in Latin American and Caribbean countries are increasingly shaped by migration and its intersection with development and economic growth. Therefore, understanding future of migration and how its affect the region can offer cues as to the direction countries will take.
An outlook of migration in Latin America and the Caribbean in five years depends on assessing three main factors, namely, growth trends in the origin and destination of human mobility, including labor and others (children, or people escaping violence), determinants of such growth and possible consequences. Moreover, an outlook in transnational economic engagement requires looking at growth, the extent of payment modernization, marketplace competition and impact on growth and development.
For the next five years, we expect migration to continue, facing anti-immigrant sentiments. Similarly, we expect remittances to continue to flow through an increasingly modernized payment system.
A. Forecasting Migration patterns
Growth—The migration wave that is shaping the region is likely to continue its growing pattern for at least five more years. Specifically, migration from Haiti, Cuba, Central America, Venezuela, and Colombia show signs of continued mobility within the Americas, specifically towards countries like Brazil, Colombia, Cosa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, and the United States). It is likely that people from other nationalities, like Guyana, Paraguay, or Bolivia, will also show increases in emigration in the near future.
We estimate that Latin American and Caribbean migration will grow above 6% in the next five years. This figure represents more than double the demographic growth rate of the migrant host countries. The determinants of migration and the intention to migrate among people, as well as the transnational ties, are and will be strong factors of continued and growing migration.
Table 1: Migration growth
|Growth Fragile/unstable countries||3.6%||4.3%||5.0%||6%|
|Growth 2017-2010 LAC migration||3.0%||3%|
|Fragile / Unstable countries||4.3%||6%|
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